Spring 2026 is shaping up as a buyers' market: what more listings and softer auctions mean for first home buyers

Spring is traditionally the busiest selling season in Australian property, and 2026 is shaping up differently to recent years. Homes listed for sale across the major cities are running roughly 24% higher than this time last year and around 8% above the five-year average, while national auction clearance rates have been sitting well below the levels seen in spring 2025. For first home buyers, more choice and softer competition at inspections can be a meaningful shift in leverage, even while affordability pressures elsewhere in the market remain real.

More listings, fewer bidders

National dwelling values fell around 0.9% in August, leaving values roughly 3.6% below the market peak reached in March 2026. At the same time, the number of homes going to auction has dropped, down about 31% compared with a year ago, as more vendors opt for private treaty sale instead. Weekend auction clearance rates nationally have been tracking in the mid-to-high 40% range, well down from the mid-70% range recorded over the same weekend last year.

A clearance rate near 60% is generally considered a balanced market between buyers and sellers. Rates well below that suggest properties are taking longer to sell and vendors have less room to hold firm on price, which can translate into more room to negotiate for buyers who are prepared and ready to move.

What is driving the shift

• Higher borrowing costs. The cash rate has moved up over the past year, and elevated mortgage costs continue to weigh on how much buyers can borrow and how confident they feel bidding at auction.
• A broadening price correction. The recent downturn has spread beyond a handful of premium suburbs to affect the majority of capital city markets, giving buyers more comparable sales evidence to negotiate with.
• Seasonal supply. Vendors traditionally list in spring hoping for stronger buyer turnout. This year the extra stock is arriving into a market with fewer active bidders, tilting the balance toward buyers rather than sellers.

What this means for first home buyers

A softer auction market does not mean every property is a bargain, and conditions vary significantly between cities and even between neighbouring suburbs. It does mean this spring may be worth treating as a genuine window rather than assuming prices will keep falling indefinitely.

• Get your borrowing capacity confirmed before you start attending auctions or making offers, so you know your ceiling and can move with confidence when a genuine opportunity appears.
• Use the extra listings to compare more properties against each other rather than settling on the first one that fits, since increased supply gives you more to weigh up.
• Where a property is passed in or fails to sell at auction, that is often an opening to negotiate directly with the vendor, particularly if it has been listed for several weeks.
• Talk to your lender or a mortgage broker about how a softer market affects your pre-approval and your negotiating position. They can also flag if lenders are adjusting valuations in response to the broader price correction.

Run the numbers

Before you make an offer this spring, it is worth checking your own numbers against current conditions using these tools:

• Borrowing Power Calculator - work out roughly how much you may be able to borrow, so you know your limit before you start negotiating
• Am I Ready to Buy? - check whether your deposit, savings and finances are lined up to take advantage of a softer market
• Rent vs Buy Calculator - compare staying in your rental for another season against buying into a market with more room to negotiate right now